TP304 Stainless Seel Seamless Pipe Transaction Is Weak And Normalized

After last year's "leak" supply side reform, blow DeTiaoGang, heating and other positive factors, the steel mill profits jumped sharply, TP304 stainless steel seamless pipe market prices last year difference in peak and valley value maximum. As a result, the price of the TP304 stainless steel seamless tube has been greatly increased, resulting in poor terminal tolerance and poor demand. Since September last year, the volume of the market has been declining, and the risk of inventory keeps increasing, so that during the winter storage period, there are few traders in the store. TP304 stainless steel seamless tube market price "cold winter" continued to decline, the market price dropped by more than 500 yuan.We thought that the New Year's initial transaction can be a little bit better, but the actual situation is TP304 stainless steel seamless tube market is still relatively flat.Since February, the market price of TP304 stainless steel seamless tube has remained relatively stable for a long time, which is "quite peaceful".So will the price of TP304 stainless steel seamless pipe still be so stable?The author thinks that storms often come with lightning speed.

 

First, the national environmental protection is not soft, the removal capacity continues.

 

First of all, from the point of view of macro policy, following the central bank must after reduction, the national development and reform commission and other six departments jointly issued again "about be focus areas to dissolve excess capacity in 2018 work notice, clearly put forward again this year reduce steel production capacity of 30 million tons, exit coal production capacity of 150 million tons, and below 300000 kw for substandard coal unit to be shut down.The TP304 stainless steel seamless tube market is less worried about future supply pressures.

 

It is foreseeable that the future management will also be faced with environmental group inspectors, especially the cold-drawn tubules that need pickling, which is expected to decline in future production, and environmental inspectors have a south trend.A few days ago, hebei, chengdu, jiangsu and other places are faced with the weight limit inspection.When the steel mill's weak capacity has not been completely removed, the capacity to go to capacity will always be, only on this point, the price of the TP304 stainless steel seamless tube is very strong.

 

2. The market transaction of TP304 stainless steel seamless tube is normalized.

 

After the Spring Festival to return, TP304 stainless steel seamless tube market price at slightly higher then back, then tends to be stable for a long time, although the upstream billet adjust the price for many times, but the tube factory and traders prices remain stable for a long time.

 

March and April according to the usual market clinch a deal, is selling season TP304 stainless steel seamless tube, clinch a deal are supposed to be a good time for the whole year, but this year, because TP304 stainless steel seamless pipe price compared to a year ago still have certain gains, terminal tolerance is abate, but I think the price is not the only factor that affect the market.Due to the obvious shortage of operating rate this year, the growth of infrastructure investment is declining, and the decline of terminal demand is the essential reason.The lack of demand will lead to the weakness of the TP304 stainless steel seamless tube.

 

Third, sino-us trade negotiation is the biggest smoke bomb.

 

On March 8, 2018, President of the United States signed proclamation trump, import steel and aluminium products that rib U.S. national security, the decision on March 23 for steel and aluminum products into goods comprehensive tax measures (232), tax rate of 25% and 10% respectively.According to data from the general administration of customs, China's steel exports to the United States totaled 1.18 million tons in 2017, of which more than 200,000 tons of steel pipes were exported, nearly 20 percent.

 

Financial war is not a weapon, but it hurts more than weapons.And we're already the world's second largest economy, and the housing bubble is huge, like Japan.The Hiroshima deal, which was signed at the time, nearly tripled the value of the yen, and the stock market crashed, and the economy never recovered.China must not repeat its mistakes.

 

On May 3 to 4, 2018, the us Treasury secretary, led's visit, China and the us delegation to china-us economic and trade issues of common interest is discussed, the two sides agree that a healthy and stable development of china-us economic and trade relations is very important, the two countries to solve the economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation.There is an old saying in China that "it is good to have two profits, but two to fight".Part of the problem has been agreed, but some differences remain.

 

Negotiation results TP304 stainless steel seamless pipe price trend in the future will have great influence, if the negotiation result ideal, has no effect, still have considerable differences if after negotiation, one for domestic stainless steel material varieties, including seamless tube, exerting huge tariff plan implementation, as usual for domestic exports of stainless steel material will cause great influence, in a short period of time TP304 stainless steel seamless pipe price or will fall.

 

4. Financial risk gathering.

 

Last year, can be seen from the domestic regulation, first to rein in real estate, the control of liquidity, and then use trillions of foreign exchange reserves to keep the exchange rate, strict controls of foreign exchange quotas, and then put a stop to the ICO, turned off the currency exchange, put the money to go out basic are locked.

 

Then the implementation of financial regulation, repeatedly drop lever, reduce systemic risk, are not within the regulatory off-balance sheet before all into the regulatory, treasure to be punished, it was over, have a picture of a preparation before.

 

The fourth financial crisis in 2017-2018: political incentives are also maturing.

 

One is that Mr Trump's impeachment could trigger a full-blown political crisis in the us, with a focus on the dollar and the us stock market.

 

The second is that Qatar's disengagement could trigger a full-blown Middle East crisis, focusing on crude oil and gold.

 

Third, some of China's political and economic uncertainties are focused on the renminbi and real estate.

 

Any of the above three factors was enough to trigger a massive financial crisis, if is one of two or more than two factors, it can trigger the biggest financial crisis in human history.

 

Thus, financial market risk gathered this year, we had set up the prevention of domestic gesture, but TP304 stainless steel seamless tube spot operation when need to be more careful, after all, the storm came often took almost of potential.

 

To sum up, the future TP304 stainless steel seamless tube market price may be stable in the short term, but there is still the risk of a high price fall.

 

 

 

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