Factors in July may directly or indirectly affect the trend of stainless steel pipe market

Recently, the price of stainless steel pipe in the country has continued to rise, and the trend has gradually expanded. The adjustment of the national monetary policy and the in-depth implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions are the most important reasons for the increase in price increases this week. The market is expected to have undergone major changes. The performance of the acceptable fundamentals, the two banks and double drop, also make the stainless steel pipe market confidence more firm. These factors in August still directly or indirectly affect the pulse of the market trend, which is a major positive for the market.

Last week, the Tangshan area began to implement a 43-day policy of limiting emissions of three types of gas concentration and emission reduction, which triggered the expectation of supply contraction. The superimposed monetary policy was tightened and the confidence in the stainless steel pipe market returned. The spot price was out of the low season. Shock up the market.

have to be aware of is:

First, how is the implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions? Post-continuation and so on. At present, the expectation of tightening the supply of stainless steel pipes has indeed been achieved. In July, Tangshan also opened an environmentally-friendly production limit, followed by the opening of limited production in Changzhou, Jiangsu: a number of steel enterprises limited production of 30-50%, involving 2%-3% of crude steel production nationwide. Although Xuzhou and other places gradually resumed production after the completion of the acceptance, the impact on the market has been digested compared with the recent limited production.

Although crude steel production remained at a high level driven by high profits, stainless steel pipe production continued to decline. As of the end of July, total inventories had fallen to the lowest level in the past four years. At the same time, it is also reflected in the obvious decline in the factory library and social library.

According to market research, with the implementation of the suspension of production in Tangshan on the 20th, many counties and cities in Tangshan issued announcements or notices to implement the production-restricted production plan to each steel mill, and the Fengrun District was implemented to the specific blast furnace of the steel mill. . The listed steel enterprises such as Jinxi directly issued the production limit rules directly in the announcement, and the implementation of limited production was much higher than before.

However, stainless steel spot supermarkets also found some problems: if the documents require the city's key districts and counties to limit production at 50%, the surrounding sub-focus is 30%, but the actual survey overall production limit is 20-30%; It is confirmed that the production is stopped, and there are few steel mills to implement. At the same time, the information that can be collected is mostly about ten days of maintenance schedule of the steel mill. Therefore, in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the depth of the limit of production.

In addition, from the perspective of macroeconomic policies, the Sino-US trade war has disrupted the process of deep domestic reforms. The Chinese side has offered two major killers, such as expanding domestic demand and loosening the currency. The positive effects on the bulk, especially the release of monetary policy, have greatly improved market expectations. Do more emotions and wake up successfully. But for now, it is difficult to see that this is turning. Although the policy of bottoming out in the context of trade wars is frequent, and the two evils of the economy are taken lightly, once the turn is equal to negating the efforts and achievements of the previous period, it is not worth the candle. Therefore, fine-tuning, moderately loose, and scale are important. In the later stage, this trend is still subject to progress observation. I am afraid that it will be difficult to take a fly to the sky. At least for the time being, it is not very clear.

From a technical point of view, this position is more sensitive, and there is a corresponding fear of high psychology. At the same time, with the staged repair of the water patch, there is still a certain pressure on the large pull-up again.

From the demand of stainless steel pipe, although the real estate investment is declining, the sales and new construction area data are better. This directly or indirectly affects 60% of the steel industry, and hedges part of the seasonality in the context of strong liquidity. Impact and the negative impact of the trade war.

In general, the stainless steel pipe market may fluctuate in August due to favorable policies such as loose monetary easing, expansion of environmental protection and production expansion, and expansion of domestic demand. However, the trade war is not overwhelming and there is uncertainty in the macro news, and the fear of heights is superimposed. Once there is a rush, the stainless steel pipe market will face a test.