August stainless steel welded pipe is expected to further destock

In July, the price of stainless steel welded pipes showed a trend of first suppression and then rising. Looking forward to the market in August, the fundamentals are expected to be further improved, and the price of stainless steel welded pipes still has room to rise.

The most important basis for supporting the continued rise in the price of stainless steel welded pipes in August was the drop in supply. Affected the normal supply and abnormal maintenance in August, Hebei's environmental protection and limited production, although Xuzhou's resumption of production increased the supply in August, but the overall estimate, the average daily steel output fell about 60,000 tons. Even considering the use of sinter, increasing the use of waste, etc., the average daily output is about 40,000 tons. On July 25, the Changzhou Air Pollution Prevention and Control Contact Conference Office issued the “Changzhou City Compulsory Emission Reduction Key Pollution Source List”, involving a total of 19 steel companies, although some enterprises are already in limited production, in addition to these enterprises need to continue to limit production. In addition, some companies have to adopt measures to reduce production, which will have a further reduction impact on the supply of stainless steel welded pipes.

It should be noted that there are other places that will take similar measures, such as the plains, the current and future emission reduction pressure is not small, according to the latest air pollution ranking, Tangshan is the last, followed by Linyi. In addition, since the limited production of Tangshan began on July 20th, the sinter and waste materials prepared by different degrees before, unless the follow-up can continue to replenish, the production reduction in August will increase. Directly, it seems that the effect of limiting production is not as good as expected. In fact, if the stainless steel welded pipe enterprises that take into account the limited production are not necessarily in the statistical sample, and the most important product types are not counted, the actual impact is more than this number. Bigger.

In August, the demand for stainless steel welded pipes is expected to rise out of a steady increase, and to a certain extent, the price of steel. This is the market performance in the traditional off-season, the local area with more rain and higher temperature. Although the temperature was higher in August this year, the rainwater should be reduced. Therefore, the demand for stainless steel welded pipes in August was at least stable compared with July, and may even further increase slightly. The author communicated with some steel mills. The orders in August this year were basically filled, and some companies even completed the August sales target in mid-July. On July 23, the National Committee of the People's Republic of China proposed to support the expansion of domestic demand, maintain macroeconomic policy stability, and actively pursue a more proactive fiscal policy. The sound monetary policy should be tight and appropriate to ensure reasonable financing needs. Some projects that have been stopped in some areas have been restarted. In the context of this fiscal positive and credit improvement, the steady rise in the demand for stainless steel welded pipes is a high probability event, which is conducive to further enhancing market confidence and boosting prices.

In terms of comprehensive supply and demand, the inventory in August is expected to be further deconstructed, which will form a solid support for the price of stainless steel welded pipes. In theory, the average monthly price of stainless steel should reach a new high, perhaps due to the strengthening of the overall industry chain control risk awareness, the monthly average price of stainless steel welded pipe is the second highest level. In the context of high profits, July production should remain at a high level, so the ratio of store-to-sales is expected to remain at a minimum. Combined with the above analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that the inventory of stainless steel welded pipes in August is expected to drop further by 1.5 million tons or more, and it is not ruled out that it will exceed expectations. It is particularly noteworthy that stainless steel welded pipe stocks have fallen for the first time this year, and in the context of the off-balance sheet, the market confidence will be greatly enhanced and the current price will continue to rise.

In August, the price of raw fuel is expected to gradually pick up under the depreciation of the renminbi and environmental protection, and there is also some support for the price of stainless steel welded pipes.

However, the United States will hold a hearing on the tariffs of 200 billion US dollars of goods imported from China on August 20-23, and will take effect after the results are announced on August 30, which is likely to bring financial markets and commodity markets. New impact.

In short, in August, the stainless steel welded pipe market is expected to further destocking due to the steady increase in demand and the drop in supply, and the price of stainless steel welded pipes is expected to rebound further. However, we must guard against the Sino-US trade war in the latter part of the year. Again disturbed and fell back.